A Liability in Waiting. Estimating the cost of youth gender medicine in Australia

Our new research puts a number on a cost almost no one is counting: the negligence claims that follow when children given gender medicine grow up, detransition, and seek redress for irreversible harm.

What we found

• Base case liability of $695m in claims to 2050 ($374m in today's dollars), ranging up to $1.35bn.

• Most medicalisation happens in public clinics, so taxpayers carry the bill.

• This is negligence claims only. Lifetime Medicare and public-health costs push the true figure higher.

Why it matters for LGB people

• Most children with gender distress used to desist and grow up same-sex attracted.

• The Cass Review found 68% of referred girls and 81% of boys were same-sex attracted.

• In effect, the affirmative model risks medicalising homosexuality.

What we recommend

• Medicare coverage for detransitioners.

• Minimum age of 25 for any medicalised gender treatment.

• No puberty blockers, cross-sex hormones or surgery through the public system.

• A funded, long-term study of those already treated.

A rapid, evidence-led wind-back would spare young people lasting harm and save hundreds of millions.